Shhh... the Victorian Government's Roadmap modelling is a secret
28 August 2022
COSTINGS under Victoria's Gas Substitution Roadmap don't stack-up, resulting in homeowners each being up for extra bills between $6,000 to $26,000 more than first thought, while the State Government keeps the modelling underpinning its estimates a closely guarded secret, Gas Energy Australia CEO Brett Heffernan said.
"Unfortunately, the phrase being treated like mushrooms applies to Victorians... kept in the dark and fed on bulldust," he said. "Based on the scant Roadmap data, the State Government is under-estimating the real costs in switching to all-electric homes by up to $26,000 per dwelling.
"These are significant hidden out-of-pocket extras in anyone's language.
"The key finding touted in the Roadmap claims switching to an all-electric home will cost homeowners $15,500. However, recent Frontier Economics data, which includes full modelling, shows this cost is, in fact, between $21,555 and $41,430 per dwelling, depending on type and size of dwelling and appliances used.
"The Frontier modelling includes costs such as necessary electricity supply and wiring upgrades, removal of appliances (i.e. evaporative cooling and ducted gas heating), rectification of plumbing, brickwork, roofing, plasterboard (walls and ceilings), repainting, etc. It appears these very real costs have been overlooked in the Victorian Government's thinking.
"The State Government's point-blank refusal to publicly release its modelling, which underpins the Roadmap's credibility and direction, is deeply disturbing. It begs some serious questions...
- Why the secrecy about the assumptions and calculations underpinning the Roadmap?
- Given the headline figures under-value the real costs of switching by up to $26,000 per homeowner, what else may have been missed?
- Shouldn't all Victorians, especially the 79% of households using gas, be fully informed and allowed to assess the bona fides of the costs and other implications for themselves?
"The Victorian Government needs to immediately release its modelling so we can all see exactly what is being claimed and assess the data. This goes directly to the obligation for transparent and accountable government. Failing to do so invites more than a whiff of more unpleasant things to hide.
"It's disappointing the Victorian Government hasn't been more inclusive in its approach on how we can all deliver renewable, net zero energy.
"Developments in renewable, net-zero gases will ultimately achieve the same net zero results without the massive costs to homeowners and businesses in transitioning to electrification, or to taxpayers in upgrading the grid to cope with new load requirements."
GEA wrote to the Premier Andrews, Minister D'Ambrosio and the Secretary of her Department weeks ago requesting the release of the modelling. We've had no acknowledgment or response.
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